SH35: Risk or Uncertainty in Diving: What’s the difference? Why it matters.

In this podcast episode, Gareth explores the complexities of risk management in diving, emphasizing the hazards involved, including drowning, hypoxia, hyperoxia, entanglement, and decompression illness. The discussion challenges the traditional concept of risk, highlighting that in diving, uncertainties are managed, not risks, due to the unknown probabilities associated with events. Drawing from a real-life cave diving accident, the episode delves into cognitive biases such as availability bias, representativeness bias, and mirages, revealing how humans struggle to accurately judge risks, especially in low probability/high consequence situations. The importance of framing decisions and considering cultural effects is discussed, shedding light on the divergent perspectives within the diving community. Gareth advocates for education and systematic thinking to address biases, emphasizing the role of checklists and the unique approach of The Human Diver in managing uncertainty rather than quantifiable risk. The episode concludes by highlighting the social construction of safety and the subjective nature of an acceptable level of risk in diving.

Original Blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/risk-or-uncertainty

Links:

Plura cave diving accident: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diving_into_the_Unknown

Anchoring case study: https://youarenotsosmart.com/2010/07/27/anchoring-effect/

Dirty Dozen splash checklist: https://thedirtydozenexpeditions.com/s/Dirty-Dozen-Group-LLC-SPLASH-CHECKLIST-30-AUDITED-BY-HUMAN-FACTORS.pdf

Reference: Social Structure, Psychology, and the Estimation of Risk. Heimer, 1998: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev.so.14.080188.002423

Tags:

 English, Cognitive Biases, Decision Making, Gareth Lock