I was listening to DisasterPodCast Episode 40, Shootdown by Andrew Rae which focussed on a number of aircraft shootdowns (TWA800, KAL007 and the USS Vicennes incident amongst others) and their subsequent investigation and incident causality. What struck me was a comment made near the end (~29:00) which referred to 'Scenario Capture' and the fact that because simulator training time is so precious, crews expect things to go wrong in terms of multiple failures which would lead to the key aim of the simulator sorties. As events unfold and the contribute to the 'expected' incident, they strengthen the confirmation bias that the simulator will end a certain way. This is hypothesised in the description of the USS Vincennes shootdown whereby biases influenced decision making (USS Stark was attacked a year before) which was then reinforced by the thought that they were under attack due to erroneous information being shouted across the Combat Information Centre (CIC), but the information to...
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